14 MAY 2026 (WED) 16:05 - 16:35

Spatially compounding wind energy drought in China and future climate change risk

Miss WU Qing    

( Supervisor: Prof Laibao Liu )

Abstract:

Spatially compounding wind energy drought (SCWD) events—low wind power generation events occurring simultaneously across multiple wind sites—can pose far greater threats to grid reliability than individual droughts, yet their spatial distribution, connection structure, and future changes under global warming remain unclear. Here, using hourly ERA5 and 12 state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we systematically assess SCWD in China under present and future climates and focus on the regional grid level that is mostly relevant to electricity interconnection and dispatch under power supply deficits. Our results show a pronounced east-west contrast nationwide, with the Northeast and North grids being most affected by SCWD, while the Southwest grid least affected. Network analysis revealed distinct SCWD connection structures, such as a widespread mesh-like structure in the Northeast Grid, a regionally clustered pattern in the East Grid, and an isolated profile in the Southwest Grid. Wind sites exhibiting both nationally high spatial synchrony and high capacity are primarily located in Inner Mongolia, emerging as global hubs driving system-wide impacts. Grid integration at larger spatial scales can substantially reduce SCWD occurrences on average, in which a fully connected national grid lowers it by 41% compared to the regional grid. Future projections suggest more widespread and frequent SCWD in China, driven by increasing individual drought, strengthened high-frequency connections, and greater spatial synchrony. These findings pinpoint under-recognized SCWD risks in China and open a new avenue for informing climate-resilient wind power planning in wind-dependent countries.