14 MAY 2026 (WED) 14:35 - 15:05

Livestock System Transition, Productivity Improvement, and Land Sustainability in China

Miss BAI Chunyue    

( Supervisor: Prof Liqing Peng )

Abstract:

This research will investigate how the livestock system transition in China has influenced land sustainability under rapidly increasing meat and dairy demand. Over the past two decades, China’s ruminant sector has shifted from traditional and grazing-based production toward more industrialized systems characterized by higher productivity and greater feed intensification. However, the land-use implications of this transition remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to examine how changes in livestock production systems affect feed demand, cropland use, forage demand, and grassland pressure across beef cattle, dairy cattle, and sheep and goat sectors in China from 2002 to 2022. Using national panel datasets, the research will quantify system-specific livestock production, feed consumption, and land-use patterns, and apply decomposition analysis to identify the relative contributions of feed conversion efficiency, land-use intensity, and feed demand to overall land-use change. In addition, counterfactual scenarios will be developed to evaluate how land demand would evolve without industrial livestock expansion. The study will also explore future mitigation pathways through circular feed optimization and improved livestock management scenarios. By linking livestock productivity transition with land sustainability, this research aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the trade-offs between industrialization, feed intensification, and ecological pressure, and contribute to the development of more resource-efficient and sustainable livestock production strategies in China.