
Professor Zhenci Xu is a human-environment researcher with focus on sustainable development goals, footprint, food-energy-water carbon nexus, ecosystem service, ecology as well as China development. He is interested in taking a holistic approach, such as integration of various components (e.g., agents, causes, spatial-temporal scales, effects, feedbacks, environmental and socioeconomic interactions), to address complexity of human-environment interactions and related sustainability issues such as sustainable development progress assessment, impacts of distant interactions on local sustainable development, and synergies and trade-offs between various kinds of ecosystem services
-
Sustainable Development Goals
-
Food-energy-water-carbon nexus
-
Footprint
-
China development
-
Human environment interactions
-
Ecology
-
Ecosystem service
Selected Publications
2025
Xu, Z., Chen, X., Jiang, Q., Wu, X., Bhattarai, N., Mullen, J.,…Liu, J. (2025). Assessing global sustainability performance, imbalance, and coordination over space and time. Nature Communications, 16(1), 9186. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64219-y
Liu, Z., Fang, K., Xu, A., Zhang, Z., Zhu, J., Wang, H.,…Wang, J. (2025). CO2 Sequestration Technologies May Undermine China’s Sustainable Development Goals through the Climate-Energy-Air-Health Cascade. Environmental science & technology, 59(1), 23-34. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c09545
Zhang, Q., Dong, J., Xu, Z., Nam, W.-H., Yang, J., Zhang, Y.,…Ge, Q. (2025). Energy shortages undermine agricultural drought resistance in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Nature food. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01226-8
Cao, Y., Kong, L., Xu, Z., Ding, Z., Wang, L., Liu, Y.,…Ouyang, Z. (2025). Exploring coordinated pathways for sustainable ecosystem and socioeconomic development: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Sustainable futures, 9, 100691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100691
Wang, D., Xu, Z., Pascual, U., Liu, L., Ahmad, W., & Jiang, D. (2025). Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms. Geography and Sustainability, 6(6), 100355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100355
Li, C., Zhang, W., Xu, Z., Zhang, Y., Yue, M., Wu, L.,…Xu, J. (2025). Impacts and threshold effects of total factor energy efficiency on carbon emissions and carbon neutrality across China’s cities. Humanities & social sciences communications, 12(1), 1206-1218. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05488-2
Li, C., Chen, Z., Jiang, Q., Yue, M., Wu, L., Bao, Y.,…Xu, Z. (2025). Impacts of government attention on achieving Sustainable Development Goals: Evidence from China. Geography and Sustainability, 6(2), 100233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.011
Li, F., Shuai, C., Xu, Z., Chen, X., Wang, C., Zhao, B.,…Xu, M. (2025). Machine learning-enhanced assessment of urban sustainable development goals progress. Cities, 158, 105718. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105718
Gong, M., Yu, K., Zhou, C., Liu, Z., Xu, Z., Xu, M., & Qu, S. (2025). SDG space: Revealing the structure and complementarities among sustainable development goals in China. Fundamental research (Beijing), 5(1), 360-369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fmre.2024.01.005
Zhao, R., Li, X., Ren, Q., Xu, Z., & Li, F. (2025). Spatial-temporal evolution pattern, driving mechanism and prediction of dietary sustainability in China. Journal of cleaner production, 519, 145892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145892
Duan, X., Huang, Q., Liu, Z., Zhang, L., Li, P., He, C.,…Li, Y. (2025). The differentiated impacts of interprovincial trade on achieving nine environment-related SDGs in China. Environmental and sustainability indicators, 25, 100589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100589
2024
He, Q., Liu, D. L., Wang, B., Wang, Z., Cowie, A., Simmons, A., . . . Yu, Q. (2024). "A food-energy-water-carbon nexus framework informs region-specific optimal strategies for agricultural sustainability." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 203: 107428. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107428
Wei, S., Zhang, H., Xu, Z., Lin, G., Lin, Y., Liang, X., . . . Gong, P. (2024). "Coastal urbanization may indirectly positively impact growth of mangrove forests." Communications Earth & Environment 5(1). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01776-y
He, L., Bhattarai, N., Pokhrel, Y., Jia, N., Zhu, P., Ye, G., . . . Li, Z. B. (2024). "Dynamics of land cover changes and carbon emissions driven by large dams in China." Iscience.
Zhang, Y., Chen, K., Xu, Z., Fang, K. and Ye, G. (2024). "First high-resolution marine natural capital mapping in the coastal waters of Chinese mainland." Journal of Environmental Management 349: 119596. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119596
Du, J., Liu, Y., Xu, Z., Duan, H., Zhuang, M., Hu, Y., . . . Fu, B. (2024). "Global effects of progress towards Sustainable Development Goals on subjective well-being." Nature Sustainability 7(3): 360-367. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01270-5
Xiao, H., Bao, S., Ren, J., Xu, Z., Xue, S. and Liu, J. (2024). "Global transboundary synergies and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals from an integrated sustainability perspective." Nature Communications 15(1): 500. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44679-w
Xing, Q., Wu, C., Chen, F., Liu, J., Pradhan, P., Bryan, B. A., . . . Xu, Z. (2024). "Intranational synergies and trade-offs reveal common and differentiated priorities of sustainable development goals in China." Nature Communications 15(1): 2251. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46491-6
Li, C., Liu, Y., Xu, Z., Zhao, G., Bao, Y., Cai, C., . . . Wu, L. (2024). "Impacts and influencing pathways of urbanization on carbon–water-energy-food nexus across Chinese cities." Environment, Development and Sustainability. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05160-w
Li, C., Zhao, G., Koh, K. P., Xu, Z., Yue, M., Wang, W., . . . Wu, L. (2024). "Impact of China’s financial development on the sustainable development goals of the Belt and Road Initiative participating countries." Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 11(1): 294. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-02791-2
Li, C., Chen, Z., Jiang, Q., Yue, M., Wu, L., Bao, Y., . . . Xu, Z. (2024). "Impacts of government attention on achieving Sustainable Development Goals: Evidence from China." Geography and Sustainability. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.011
Luo, L., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Chen, M., Jiang, Q., Yang, W., . . . Guo, H. (2024). "Innovations in science, technology, engineering, and policy (iSTEP) for addressing environmental issues towards sustainable development." The Innovation Geoscience 2(3): 100087. DOI:https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100087
Yu, B., Jiang, Z., Zhao, R., Wang, A. B., Zhang, H. and Xu, Z. (2024). "Leveraging transboundary interactions for urban resilience and sustainability." The Innovation Geoscience 2(3): 100084. DOI:https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100084
Huang, L., Liu, J., Sun, Z., Li, X., Ishwaran, N., Lu, S., . . . Guo, H. (2024). "Perceiving progress and imbalance of environmental SDG indicators in China using big data." International Journal of Digital Earth 17(1): 2297847. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2023.2297847
Gong, M., Yu, K., Zhou, C., Liu, Z., Xu, Z., Xu, M. and Qu, S. (2024). "SDG space: Revealing the structure and complementarities among sustainable development goals in China." Fundamental Research. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fmre.2024.01.005
Hua, T., He, L., Jiang, Q., Chou, L.-M., Xu, Z., Yao, Y. and Ye, G. (2024). "Spatio-temporal coupling analysis and tipping points detection of China's coastal integrated land-human activity-ocean system." Science of The Total Environment 914: 169981. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169981
Yu, B., Xu, Z., Du, C., Xu, J., Pan, Y., Zhou, J. and Shan, Y. (2024). "Spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of carbon inequalities in urban agglomeration: An MLD-IDA inequality indicator decomposition." Ecological Indicators 162: 112004. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112004
Cheng, Y., Xu, Z. and Liu, H. (2024). "Sustainable development in global border regions." Science 384(6702): 1309-1309. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp0639
Xu, Z. (2024). "Towards carbon neutrality in China: A systematic identification of China's sustainable land-use pathways across multiple scales." Sustainable Production and Consumption 44: 167-178. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2023.12.008
Gong, M., Yu, K., Xu, Z., Xu, M. and Qu, S. (2024). "Unveiling complementarities between national sustainable development strategies through network analysis." Journal of Environmental Management 350: 119531. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119531
2023
Cao, M., Tian, Y., Wu, K., Chen, M., Chen, Y., Hu, X., Sun, Z., Zuo, L., Lin, J., Luo, L., Zhu, R., Xu, Z., Bandrova, T., Konecny, M., Yuan, W., Guo, H., Lin, H., & Lü, G. (2023). Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios. Science Bulletin, 68(7), 740-749. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012
Li, F., Liu, H., Wu, S., Wang, Y., Xu, Z., Yu, P., & Yan, D. (2023). A PES framework coupling socioeconomic and ecosystem dynamics from a sustainable development perspective. Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117043
He, L., Li, Z., Jia, Q., & Xu, Z. (2023). Soil microplastics pollution in agriculture. Science, 379(6632), 547-547. https://doi.org/doi:10.1126/science.adf6098
Xiao, H., Bao, S., Ren, J., & Xu, Z. (2023). Transboundary impacts on SDG progress across Chinese cities: A spatial econometric analysis. Sustainable Cities and Society, 92, 104496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104496
Zhao, R., Li, X., Wang, Y., Xu, Z., Xiong, M., Jia, Q., & Li, F. (2023). Assessing resilience of sustainability to climate change in China's cities. Science of The Total Environment, 898, 165568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165568
Wu, X., Fu, B., Wang, S., Song, S., Lusseau, D., Liu, Y., Xu, Z., & Liu, J. (2023). Bleak prospects and targeted actions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Science Bulletin, 68(22), 2838-2848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.010
Xiong, M., Zhao, R., Li, X., Wang, Y., Xu, Z., & Li, F. (2023). Climate resilience assessment of sustainability at national level: A case study of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Cleaner Production, 430, 139717. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139717
Jia, Q., Wang, Y., Xu, Z., & Li, F. (2023). Electricity outages delay SDGs in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature, 618(7963), 30. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-01757-9
Gong, P., Guo, H., Chen, B., Chen, F., He, G., Liang, D., Liu, Z., Sun, Z., Wu, J., Xu, Z., Yan, D., & Zhang, H. (2023). iEarth: an interdisciplinary framework in the era of big data and AI for sustainable development. National Science Review, 10(8), nwad178. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwad178
Li, C., Wan, Y., Xu, Z., Fan, X., Shuai, C., Yu, X., & Tan, Y. (2023). Impacts and Pathways of the Belt and Road Initiative on Sustainable Development Goals of the Involved Countries. Sustainable Development. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2819
Cao, M., Chen, M., Zhang, J., Pradhan, P., Guo, H., Fu, B., Li, Y., Bai, Y., Chang, L., Chen, Y., Sun, Z., Xu, Z., Zhu, R., Meadows, M. E., & Lü, G. (2023). Spatio-temporal changes in the causal interactions among Sustainable Development Goals in China. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1), 450. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01952-z
Feng, C., Ye, G., Zeng, J., Zeng, J., Jiang, Q., He, L., Zhang, Y., & Xu, Z. (2023). Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation. Nature communications, 14(1), 6144. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41870-x
Wu, X., Fu, B., Wang, S., Liu, Y., Yao, Y., Li, Y., Xu, Z., & Liu, J. (2023). Three main dimensions reflected by national SDG performance. Innovation (Camb), 4(6), 100507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2023.100507
2022
Yan, D., Wu, S., Tang, Y., Zhu, J., Zhou, S., & Xu, Z. (2022). Arable land and water footprints for food consumption in China: From the perspective of urban and rural dietary change. Science of The Total Environment, 838, 155749. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155749
Xu, G., Dong, H., Xu, Z., & Bhattarai, N. (2022). China can reach carbon neutrality before 2050 by improving economic development quality. Energy, 243, 123087. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.123087
Jiang, Y., Tian, S., Xu, Z., Gao, L., Xiao, L., Chen, S., Xu, K., Chang, J., Luo, Z., & Shi, Z. (2022). Decoupling environmental impact from economic growth to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 312, 114978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114978
Wu, X., Fu, B., Wang, S., Song, S., Li, Y., Xu, Z., Wei, Y., & Liu, J. (2022). Decoupling of SDGs followed by re-coupling as sustainable development progresses. Nature Sustainability, 5(5), 452-459. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00868-x
Jiang, Q., Bhattarai, N., Pahlow, M., & Xu, Z. (2022). Environmental sustainability and footprints of global aquaculture. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 180, 106183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106183
Jiang, Q., Xu, Z., & Zhang, H. (2022). Global impacts of COVID-19 on sustainable ocean development. The Innovation, 3(4), 100250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100250
Jiang, Q., Li, Z., Qu, S., Cui, Y., Zhang, H., & Xu, Z. (2022). High-resolution map of China's sustainability. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 178, 106092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106092
Zeng, Y., Ran, L., Fang, N., Wang, Z., Xu, Z., Lu, X., Yu, Q., Wang, L., Yu, S., & Shi, Z. (2022). How to balance green and grain in marginal mountainous areas? Earth's Future, e2021EF002552. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002552
Xiao, H., Xu, Z., Ren, J., Zhou, Y., Lin, R., Bao, S., Zhang, L., Lu, S., Lee, C. K., & Liu, J. (2022). Navigating Chinese cities to achieve sustainable development goals by 2030. The Innovation, 3(5), 100288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100288
Li, C., Lin, T., Chen, Y., Yan, Y., & Xu, Z. (2022). Nonlinear impacts of renewable energy consumption on economic growth and environmental pollution across China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 368, 133183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133183
He, L., Xu, Z., Wang, S., Bao, J., Fan, Y., & Daccache, A. (2022). Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective. Applied Energy, 308, 118364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118364
Shi, M., Xu, J., Liu, S., & Xu, Z. (2022). Productivity-Based Land Suitability and Management Sensitivity Analysis: The Eucalyptus E. urophylla× E. grandis Case. Forests, 13(2), 340. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020340
Jiang, Q., Xu, Z., Ye, G., Pahlow, M., Hu, M., & Qu, S. (2022). A systematic scoping review of environmental and socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on the global ocean-human system. Science of The Total Environment, 157925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157925
Zhou, C., Gong, M., Xu, Z., & Qu, S. (2022). Urban scaling patterns for sustainable development goals related to water, energy, infrastructure, and society in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 185, 106443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106443
2020
Xu, Z., Chen, X., Liu, J., Zhang, Y., Chau, S., Bhattarai, N., ... & Li, Y. (2020). Impacts of irrigated agriculture on food–energy–water–CO 2 nexus across metacoupled systems. Nature communications, 11(1), 1-12.
Xu, Z., Chau, S.N., Chen, X….& Liu, J. Assessing progress towards sustainable development over space and time. Nature 577, 74–78 (2020) doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1846-3.
Xu, Z., Li, Y., Chau, S. N., Dietz, T., Li, C., Wan, L., ... & Liu, J. (2020). Impacts of international trade on global sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1-8.
Chen, X., Wang, P., Muhammad, T., Xu, Z., & Li, Y. (2020). Subsystem-level groundwater footprint assessment in North China Plain–The world’s largest groundwater depression cone. Ecological Indicators, 117, 106662. (as corresponding author)
2019
Xu, Z., Paul, M., Gong, M., & Liu, J. (2019). Shift in a National Virtual Energy Network. Applied Energy, 242, 561-569.
Xu, Z., Chen, X., Wu, S. R., Gong, M., Du, Y., Wang, J., ... & Liu, J. (2019). Spatial-temporal assessment of water footprint, water scarcity and crop water productivity in a major crop production region. Journal of Cleaner Production, 224, 375-383.
Wang, J., Chen, X., Liu, Z., Frans, V. F., Xu, Z.*, Qiu, X., ... & Li, Y. (2019). Assessing the water and carbon footprint of hydropower stations at a national scale. Science of The Total Environment, 676, 595-612. (as corresponding author)
