27 JAN 2026 (TUE) 16:35 - 17:05

The Hidden Shipping Carbon Cost of Extreme Weather: Quantifying the Hydrodynamic Penalty of Hurricane Evasion   

Mr LUO Qinrui      

( Supervisor: Prof Bo Huang )

Abstract:

Global maritime transport is the backbone of international trade but faces intensifying threats from climate change, particularly the increasing frequency and severity of tropical cyclones. While existing literature focuses heavily on weather routing optimization algorithms, there remains a critical gap in understanding how vessels actually navigate under extreme weather stress and the consequent environmental impacts. Current bottom-up emission inventories typically assume calm water or average weather conditions. Consequently, they significantly underestimate the additional carbon costs associated with aggressive evasion maneuvers and hydrodynamic penalties in rough seas. 

This study aims to bridge this gap by quantifying the real-world emission spikes of merchant vessels during hurricane events. Using the 2022 Hurricane Ian as a pilot case, we integrated high-resolution Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectory data with ERA5 meteorological reanalysis products. An unsupervised K-Means clustering algorithm is employed to decouple distinct behavioral patterns from vessel trajectories in the hurricane-affected waters. Furthermore, a physics-based hydrodynamic model (Kwon’s Method) is applied to calculate the added wave resistance and the resulting fuel consumption penalties. 

The empirical analysis identifies four distinct evasion archetypes. Notably, a minority high-risk group dominated by large container ships exhibited aggressive behavior by maintaining high speeds through severe wave zones. The hydrodynamic analysis reveals that this strategy leads to a great surge in power demand compared to calm-water baselines, particularly when vessels engage in head-on interception with the storm to minimize delay. This research provides empirical evidence of the significant emission increase in extreme weather, offering a new perspective for refining global emission inventories and developing climate-resilient shipping policies.