28 JUL 2025 (MON) 14:35–14:55

Worsening refugee discourse in Europe, 2010-2024: An AI-driven social-media analysis

Mr LIU Zhihao

( Supervisor: Prof Peter K Koh )

Abstract:

Europe’s refugee crisis, through chaotic border controls and the uneven allocation of asylum-seekers, has reshaped relations both among affected countries and within them. This study aims to investigate which countries have been mentioned more positively or negatively by other countries and by their own regions over the last 15 years, using AI-driven analysis. By doing so, we can illuminate bilateral and region-country dynamics in the context of the refugee crisis.

We analyzed n=550,767 multilingual and geolocated social media posts from 31 EU and their neighboring countries in 2010-2024. We set three sub-periods before and after three major events: 2010-14 (Arab Spring), 2015-21 (European migrant crisis), and 2022-24 (Russia-Ukraine War). Using a set of open-source LLMs (Large Language Models) and deep learning models, (1) we inferred precise, analysis ready user locations, (2) gauged sentiment and detected hate speech in each post, and (3) extracted key concerns for each sub dataset grouped by location, sub-period and cohorts of users holding distinct attitude. Finally, (4) we analyzed how sentiment and hate speech correlate with socioeconomic factors.

Our findings on refugee discourse in Europe are fourfold: (1) Negative tweets dominated the refugee discourse all the time. (2) Hate speech tweets accounted for 9 % in 2022-2024, substantially increasing from 0 % in 2010-2014 and 4 % in 2015-2021. (3) Northwestern Europe generated more hate-speech tweets than Southeastern Europe. (4) The number of the refugee population and the tertiary-education enrolment correlate with negative sentiment and higher hate speeches, respectively. The findings document that negative viewpoints on refugees worsened over time, with unequal spatial and demographic factors underlying across Europe. Future research focuses on cross-border coordination and place-sensitive governance to foster sustainable refugee integration.